While Progressive Betting systems aren’t the most elegant form of betting on soccer, some people claim they are able to make big profits using them in just about all sports, including cricket. This article has a look at whether the returns of using the Fibonacci system are worth the risks. The basic premise is a simple one that sees you betting on a draw, and, if your wager loses, betting on another one. You repeat this process until you’ve won, and there are only 2 other rules for you to follow:
- Only wager on draws when the probability of one occurring is higher than 2.618
- Increase your stake by following the Fibonacci sequence: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, etc.
This idea is based on a 1989 theory that says that a draw is the most difficult outcome for bookmakers offering the sports betting NZ has available to predict, which makes this an outcome that punters can exploit. The idea behind it is that, as long as you are continually increasing the amount you stake, your eventual win will cover all of your previous losses.
Putting This Strategy Into Practice
The Premier League 2011/12 data reveals that there were 93 draws in a total of 380 games, which means that 24.5% of matches ended in a tie. The odds for a potential draw in all 380 games was also, interestingly, above the threshold of 2.618 suggested as the lower limit.
This means that a payout should occur, on average, every four games, and so the winning bet would the fourth number in the Fibonacci sequence, 3. The total bet each time would be NZ$7, with the winning stake added to the three which failed before it, namely 1, 1, and 2. Considering the fact that the average odds for a draw stood at 4.203, this means that winnings would average NZ$12.61, with a profit of NZ$5.61. Over 380 games, the theoretical profit thus becomes NZ$1786.7 from an initial wager of just NZ$1!
The first drawback is that many games are played simultaneously, which means you would not have the option to increase your bet to the next number in the sequence if a draw does not occur, as the matches finish at the same time. In order to counteract this, punters could consider applying the betting sequence to individual teams instead.